成果归属作者：

马少超

成果归属机构：

经济管理学院

作者：

Pu Zhao, Shao-Chao Ma, Yusen Zhang, Yoshikuni Yoshida, Haizhong An

单位：

China University of Geosciences (Beijing)

关键词：

Electric vehicles; Consumer preference evolution; Fiscal incentives; Technological progress; Random coefficient discrete choice model

摘要：

Analyzing the evolution of heterogeneous consumer preferences for electric vehicles (EVs) is crucial for accurately identifying consumer demands and market development stages. Based on model-level monthly sales data from the Chinese automotive market between 2017 and 2023, this study employs a random coefficient discrete choice model with aggregated data to examine the evolution of revealed consumer preferences for EVs across multiple dimensions, including price, energy type, and vehicle specifications. Counterfactual analysis is also conducted to disentangle the impacts of fiscal incentives and technological progress on EV adoption. The results indicate that consumers prioritize cost-effectiveness and fuel economy. EV preferences have risen rapidly over the past seven years, showing a trend toward premiumization. Battery electric vehicles provide a more stable consumer utility. Notably, fiscal incentives effectively stimulate consumers’ purchase intentions, while technological progress serves as the fundamental driving force behind the long-term growth of the EV market.

基金：

国家自然科学基金

语种：

英文

来源：

Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment,2026(151):.

出版日期：

2026-02-01

提交日期：

2026-06-11

引用参考：

Pu Zhao, Shao-Chao Ma, Yusen Zhang, Yoshikuni Yoshida, Haizhong An. Consumer preferences evolution for electric vehicles under fiscal incentives and technological progress[J]. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment,2026(151):.

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